The very foundations of Labour's support are crumbling in the face of voter disillusionment, and the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election is a stark indicator of this seismic shift. As the election looms, a palpable sense of discontent permeates the streets of south-east Manchester, uniting a diverse electorate with a shared, intense disdain for the current prime minister. It's a sentiment so strong that mentioning Keir Starmer's name often elicits not respect, but outright disbelief, as if the very idea of him being a serious contender is almost laughable.
One middle-aged resident, walking her dog, expressed this sentiment succinctly, stating, "He just doesn't stick to his word." Her feelings, she admitted, were too impolite to be printed, but her frustration is echoed across the community. This sentiment is hardly surprising, especially when the government finds itself once again embroiled in a bewildering and chaotic policy reversal. This latest U-turn, concerning the delay of local council elections, was a humiliating capitulation, not born from a sudden realization of wrongdoing, but from the pressure of Nigel Farage and Reform UK's legal challenge. It’s a clear demonstration of a leader who appears to make decisions based on avoiding defeat rather than conviction.
This erosion of trust is precisely what you'd expect when a political strategy, as crafted by Starmer's former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, appears to have been built on a foundation of misdirection. The alleged tactic of misleading Labour's own membership with left-leaning promises, only to abandon them later, has seemingly become the party's defining characteristic. The consequence? Voters now widely perceive this government as inherently untrustworthy, a sentiment backed by YouGov data showing a staggering six in 10 Britons deeming Starmer untrustworthy.
Walking through Gorton and Denton today, this decline in faith is not just a statistic; it's a tangible presence. Labour's once solid support, which secured them half the vote in 2024, is now fracturing. The coalition is splintering in two distinct directions: towards the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, on the more progressive left, and towards Nigel Farage's Reform UK on the nationalist right.
While commentators often attempt to neatly divide the constituency – Gorton as younger and more diverse, Denton as older, whiter, and more working-class – reality proves far more nuanced. You'll find a surprising number of Green Party posters in Gorton, while Union Jacks are more prevalent in Denton. However, individuals rarely fit into such rigid boxes. In Denton, an older woman, while expressing concerns about "illegal migrants" impacting job availability, declared her intention to vote for the Green candidate, local plumber Hannah Spencer. Similarly, a white gentleman in his seventies, with a thick Mancunian accent, decried Rachel Reeves' perceived "vendetta against pensioners" and stated his support for the "leftwing insurgents."
Spencer herself is optimistic about Denton, noting that Reform UK often makes the mistake of assuming that "white working-class communities all think and act in one and the same way." She believes they've "really, really underestimated how much people actually do care about having a place for everyone to live."
But here's where it gets controversial: while the constituency is awash with anger and disillusionment, this anger manifests in vastly different ways. For those gravitating towards Reform's candidate, Matt Goodwin, immigration is almost invariably the primary grievance. One middle-aged woman articulated this by saying, "Britain seems full with immigrants at the moment, and there’s not enough houses." She lamented that her three sons couldn't even get onto the council house waiting list. This is a perfect illustration of how right-wing populism capitalizes on the fallout from a failing economic system. People feel trapped in a zero-sum game, believing that fewer immigrants would mean more homes, more jobs, and greater security for them. The reality, however, is that the housing stock has been depleted through sales and insufficient replacement, leaving tens of thousands on waiting lists. While new, expensive flats are being constructed everywhere, they are often inaccessible to local residents, leading to the mistaken assumption that they are intended for refugees.
And this is the part most people miss: Can the Green Party effectively counter the right-wing populist narrative with their own brand of grassroots appeal? They are mobilizing a largely youthful army of activists, with the party claiming to have knocked on 11,000 doors in a single Saturday – roughly a quarter of the households in the area. However, their rapid ascent means they have limited historical infrastructure in the seat, and are essentially building from the ground up. As long-time resident and activist Ally Fogg put it, "The main thing is that nobody is voting Labour. It’s become almost impossible to find a Labour voter anywhere."
Indeed, finding a Labour voter here is a significant challenge. I did encounter one party loyalist who argued that the media holds Starmer to a stricter standard than his Conservative predecessors. Yet, even he admitted to wavering, stating he would decide on polling day who was best positioned to prevent Reform from winning.
Labour remains outwardly confident about its prospects, though this by-election defies typical expectations management. Usually, parties downplay their chances to energize their base. However, when competing with another progressive party, the calculation changes. If Labour's vote share doesn't collapse, it might be attributed to a new phenomenon: the "shy Labour voter" – individuals reluctant to admit their voting intentions due to perceived stigma, much like Conservative supporters in the past.
What is undeniable is that even Labour's remaining grassroots struggle to articulate a clear purpose. A cheerful canvasser from Bradford cited "equality" as a core Labour value, but faltered when asked to name specific policies that embody this principle.
Party officials insist that support remains strong among local Muslim voters, despite widespread anger over Britain's perceived complicity in Israel's war in Gaza. However, left-wing activist Farrukh Haroon vehemently disputes this, stating, "Their vote has tanked." He argues that Labour has treated Muslim communities as "voting fodder" and "colonial subjects," a dynamic he believes has now been broken.
What should truly alarm anyone invested in the health of democracy is the profound level of angry disengagement on display here. Some individuals I spoke with explicitly stated they had given up on voting altogether, having developed a deep-seated contempt for all politicians. These are the citizens whom the Green Party's brand of populism has yet to win over.
After years of declining living standards and strained public services, the hope that once sustained so many has withered. While frustration and apathy are present, the most overwhelming emotion is despair. If this despair solidifies, it could plunge the country into a much darker future. Once trust has been irrevocably damaged, as is evident in this constituency, the subsequent path forward becomes profoundly uncertain.
What are your thoughts on this breakdown of trust in political leadership? Do you believe Keir Starmer can regain the confidence of voters, or is the damage too deep? Share your opinions in the comments below!
